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It seems to be guitar buying is slowing down that started 2 years ago.High end stuff is still selling but the rest seems to be sitting longer.This was bound to happen with the rising cost of living. Am i wrong or do you find this to be true online and in your local stores.
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10-12-2022 06:12 PM
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Things have slowed, but they were at an insane, absolutely unsustainable pace. High end stuff, especially over $5k continues to sell far faster than pre-pandemic. That comes from me having a focus on used/vintage stuff, not new.
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Late 2021 was (so far) the all time high for both guitar and equity prices. High end guitar market has still not cooled down as fast as equities. So if you bought some guitars, congrats on responsibly diversifying your portfolio. Make sure you point it out to your spouses!
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I've been watching Archtop.com the past few months, it seems like the inventory is just sitting. Very little turnover, from what I've seen. Most of those guitars are over $4K.
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In the last month I picked up 3 , I think my frenzy has subsided for the present . A Blueberry burst Figured 335, Vintage PRS 10 top Mcarty Soapbar in honey sunburst, and a stunning blue fade PRS McCarty 594 Hollowbody II
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That nice $3500 L48 in Latvia (Reverb) is still sitting there (but that could be because it's a somewhat improbable location).
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It's more than slowing. More like dead stop. Demand - for private sales anyway - is absent. Good shops are still selling though.
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Regarding new guitars, inventory is being restocked at a more normal rate now for mid/lower range guitars. I am seeing more vintage archtops come on the market resulting in more sitting longer before being sold. Prices just need to come back to somewhat realistic prices… not sure that will happen though.
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They'll have to, at some point...
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Craigslist prices are edging downwards. I always offer half of the asking price and negotiate from there. Until recently, no takers. But now, I've had two this month accept the 50% offer, and 1 other meet me in the middle.
Days on Craigslist appear to be getting longer....
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With the economy going to the way it is (at least in the US) and interest rates rising (affecting those who are prone to borrow money), I would think ANY kind of buying frenzy would dissipate rather quickly. Historically, the economy has its highs and lows and I have seen a number of these cycles in my life time. So, I suppose for those wanting to sell, adapt an attitude of "this too shall pass".
Tony
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In the past 6 months I have bought 3 and sold one, so I think I am doing a poor job at thinning out my collection of 14. But I like to think I am helping to sustain the market.
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I beefed up during covid, sold of the surplus and kept what I really want. I think I'm done (but stay tuned for the next episode).
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In the past 2 months I sold one and 'gifted' another.
Lessons learned -
If you're very limited as to who will buy it, whatever you may think it's worth, is wrong.
Even if they're not currently being made, and new prices have doubled, it doesn't matter what you paid for it as new, four years ago.
Maybe new dealers are always in an inventory blow-out mode, and they don't care who loses, as long as it isn't them.
And maybe a good way to gauge a dealer's interest in archtops at all is to look at his inventory. There's probably a subtle hint that if he rarely has any used ones to buy, he really doesn't want to fool with jazz boxes at all.
But this ' gifting ' isn't so bad for a lot for reasons. And it makes the ' Executor of the Estate's job easier. : )
Just mho.....
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I thought so too but then I sold my Gretsch in about 3 hours.
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Not being a UK native speaker, I am not quite sure what the meaning of the word Frenzy is. I think of frenzy as madness, crazyness etc. To me, it is like when prices are extremely on the rise or fall, it is important to push the button at the right moment. Ie sell at the moment the goods are worth less than they are worth in the present market, or buy if you can get it for less than the market dictates.
I bought a 10KEuro blonde vintage 70s near mint Gibson L5CES a few months ago. I live in Europe where prices for high end guitars are usually way up. Prices were going through the roof, and I had the money, was convinced that prices would only go up further and pushed the button. I like to believe I did it allright. Splendid guitar and if I look at todays market and prices only went up and up.Last edited by hotpepper01; 10-13-2022 at 01:30 PM.
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I think the market is slowing and will continue at least with most high end archtops. That makes sense given what I am seeing in real life. I never eat out I do all the grocery shopping and cook for myself and my 23 year old son at times. The amount of money I am spending at grocery store is way up from year ago and the price of natural gas.
I used less natural gas this month than 1year ago and yet my bill is double this month. I could buy a dozen eggs for .99 at times. Now they are 2.39 a dozen. Milk was 1.69 a gallon now it is 3.06 a gallon. Jack's frozen pizza's I would get would be 4 for $10. They are not 3.99 each. Basically, the food bill is up, way up well over the inflation rate. Problem is we all have to eat every day. We don't have to play the guitar every day or get another one.
So far good beer is little more but I am not seeing the huge price increases in good beer. I paid $14.99 for a 12 pack of Sierra Nevada Pale Ale and that is pretty much been the price the last 2 years. But milk, meat, eats, and the staples are out of sight. It does not probably affect the wealthy but frankly many great guitars that are expensive and wanted are not owned and bought by the wealthy. d
I am going to have a Sierra Nevada PA this evening and play my Campellone..............glad I bought mine over 20 years ago!
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IME, the words "guitar buying frenzy" and "archtop guitars" rarely occur on the same page.
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I think we have to distinguish between run-of-the-mill new (and used) guitar prices and collectible guitars. I imagine your typical Fenders/LPs/SGs etc might moderate or come down due to decreased buying.
OTOH, you have rarish guitars, including the well-known Gibson archtops that they are no longer making.
Does anyone have any experience with how collectibles do in a down market? My feeling is that they maintain their value to some extent as a hedge and also because if something is rare, there is still demand among a small group of well-heeled individuals.
My guess is that people paying $10,000 for a fancy Gibson archtop aren't going to worry too much about whether eggs cost $3.99 a dozen or whether the Fed Reserve rate is 5%.
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So there are many members here for whom a 10k$ Gibson is an expense they don't have to think twice about?
Originally Posted by Doctor Jeff
I grew up with classmates who lived in big mansion-like houses on landscaped terrain in the fancy part of the village, at least two cars and all the kids members of the local hockey, golf and tennis clubs. I also had classmates who lived in flats, popular neighbourhoods or social housing, with at most 1 car and just a membership of one of the soccerteams. Guess where you'd get just a single dry biscuit with your fancy cup of tea if you even got offered something.
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You've got it right. We use it in a few idioms, like a feeding frenzy: originally a pack of predators all devouring prey at a frantic pace, though now we use the idiom for people contexts as well. A guitar buying frenzy is a bunch of people competing to buy guitars at a manic pace, as if guitars were soon to run out and you had to get one while you still could. Originally Posted by hotpepper01
$3500 for an L48?!? I remember only a couple of years ago when they didn't seem worth it at a third that price. It must be quite the specimenThat nice $3500 L48 in Latvia (Reverb) is still sitting there (but that could be because it's a somewhat improbable location).
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I updated the PSA thread I created about this one with the video showcasing it. It looks in good shape but otherwise unremarkable to me, and the price just about right for an instrument of its age. The other specimens I heard all sounded really nice, maybe a bit more well-rounded (versatile) than the average acoustic archtop; I remember one which I would not had recognised as an archtop in a pure audio recording. Pity I wasn't aware of all that those couple of years ago! Originally Posted by Endaro
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I doubt that there are many of us who can comment knowledgeably on the financial status of other members, so I would say that the answer to your question is that collectively, we simply don't know. It would be an assumption to think that if a member here owns such a guitar, that it would be as another said - not concerned about the current inflation. In my case, I received an inheritance just large enough to buy such a guitar when it became available locally. Otherwise, I would never own such an instrument and I will continue to watch inflation and buy my groceries carefully. We simply don't know another's financial situation unless that person discloses it. Originally Posted by RJVB
Tony
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an L-48 while a fine guitar is next to the last in the Gibson food chain above the L-37, it screams student model.
I can't imagine one being worth more than $1500 today no matter how nice.
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Sorry, I must have forgotten the "rhetorical question" smiley Originally Posted by tbeltrans
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